Article Abrstract:

?uvena tvrdnja u makroekonomiji otvorene privrede - koja postoji u Mundell-Fleming-ovom svetu rigidnih cena i savršene mobilnosti kapitala - kaže da izbor optimalnog režima deviznog kursa treba da zavisi od vrste šoka koji poga?a ekonomiju. Ukoliko su šokovi prevashodno realni, optimalan je fleksibilni devizni kurs, a ukoliko su šokovi uglavnom monetarni, optimalan je fiksni devizni kurs. Me?utim, ne postoji nijedan o?igledan razlog zašto bi ta paradigma trebalo da bude najadekvatnija kada se razmišlja o ovom važnom pitanju. Poreme?aji na tržištu sredstava/kapitala svakako mogu biti jednako zna?ajni kao i poreme?aji tržišta robe (posebno u zemljama u razvoju). U svetlu toga, pokazujemo da se u modelu sa fleksibilnim cenama i poreme?ajima tržišta sredstava, Mundell-Fleming-ova tvrdnja okre?e naglava?ke: fleksibilni kursevi su optimalni u prisustvu monetarnih šokova, dok su fiksni kursevi optimalni kao odgovor na realne šokove. Stoga zaklju?ujemo da izbor optimalnog režima deviznog kursa ne treba da zavisi samo od vrste šoka (realnog versus monetarnog) ve? i od vrste poreme?aja (tržišta roba versus tržišta kapitala).

Article Abrstract:

During the 90s emerging markets have been hit by recurrent exchange rate crises. Almost all these countries shared a common characteristic: they adopted in previous years soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. International institutions and academic economists interpreted this intrinsic fragility of soft pegs as a consequence of the increasing international capital mobility. From this perspective, the exchange-rate regime is seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark trade-off among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Soft pegs seem incompatible with international financial integration. As a result, a new consensus appeared: the choice of domestic authorities is limited to corner solutions: hard pegs on the one side; independent floating on the other side. This paper proposes a contribution to the analysis of exchange rate regimes choice by emerging markets. The new consensus is questioned by considering that emerging countries are confronted not in the choice between extreme solutions, but rather with the choice of the degree of fixity- or the degree of flexibility- of the exchange rate.

Article Abrstract:

We show that an American monetary shock wields an influence, though limited, over the Lebanese output in accordance with the literature advances. However, as we are waiting for a stronger transmission of U.S. short-term rates to Lebanese short-term rates, we notice that this transmission is weak in the first year. The result can be explained by the presence of pricing-to-market. After the end of the first year, we find the traditional result where the increase in the American interest rate is transmitted integrally to the Lebanese interest rate. We recognize this phenomenon as the dollarization effect.

Article Abrstract:

The money market represents a segment of financial markets wherein the objects of trading are funds with short-term maturities. The money market in Montenegro is still in its early stages of development, and is characterized by a narrow scope of trading material and by a relatively narrow variety of participants. The reasons for such slow development of the Montenegrin money market are numerous: lack of regulations, dollarization as a model of monetary and foreign exchange regime, excessive liquidity of domestic banks, insufficient liquidity in the corporate sector, limited protection of creditor rights, and minimal corporate transparency. Short-term government bonds ("T-bills")-traded exclusively on the primary market-are the only short-term securities on the Montenegrin money market. Montenegrin banks are the biggest investors in T-bills. Foreign investors withdrew from the primary T-bill market after a decrease in T-bill interest rates. For a while, many considered that inadequate solutions in the Law on Securities were the main setbacks to organizing a secondary T-bill market. However, amendments to this Law did not spark the development of a T-bill market, nor any other short-term securities market. Adequate legislation is essential for the development of the money market, but it is not a sole precondition. A decrease in banks’ liquidity (as competition from other financial institutions increases and/or deposit interest rates decline) is important to induce the money market’s development. We can expect a concurrent decrease in lending interest rates only as the conditions of creditor rights protection and business operations transparency improve. Only under such conditions can we expect banks and other financial and non-financial legal entities to begin issuing short-term securities.

Article Abrstract:

Household total expenditure (consumption) is a very important phenomenon in many research areas. The problem is how to get precise information about the consumption from each household and at the same time not to make the questionnaire so long and involved that it becomes a burden to the respondent. In this paper is evidence from several sources on the usefulness of recall consumption questions. Valid information can be collected by adding specific recall questions to general purpose surveys. There are a few recommendations on how to do so.

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