Article Abrstract:

U prošlosti se od centralnih banaka o?ekivalo - shodno zakonu, obi?aju, ili i jednome i drugome - da koriste svoje instrumente da bi ostvarile višestruke ciljeve, kao što su visoka stopa rasta i zaposlenosti, obezbe?ivanje sredstava za državne rashode i rešavanje problema platnog bilansa. Danas je zakonska i stvarna nezavisnost centralnih banaka znatno ve?a nego što je bila pre dvadeset godina, a njihov primarni cilj je postao stabilnost cena. U ovom radu se ispituju institucionalne promene koje su se desile tokom poslednje dve decenije u oblasti autonomije centralnih banaka i povezanih institucija monetarne politike širom sveta, uz prikaz skupljenih empirijskih dokaza o odnosu izme?u nezavisnosti centralnih banaka i makroekonomskih performansi. Ono što je nau?eno o stabilizaciji inflacije razmatra se zajedno sa nezavisnoš?u centralnih banaka u širem kontekstu izbora nominalnog sidra. U poslednjem delu se razmatraju budu?i izazovi sa kojima se suo?avaju nezavisne centralne banke u eri stabilnosti cena. Kada se inflacija savlada, od banke se prirodno o?ekuje da više pažnje posveti stabilizaciji output gepa. Rizici koji su povezani s tako fleksibilnim režimom ciljanja inflacije ispituju se zajedno s pitanjima odgovornosti i transparentnosti koja postaju sve važnija u novom režimu. Rad tako?e ispituje i izbor izme?u demokratske odgovornosti i autonomije centralne banke, koji se pojavljuje u kontekstu raspodele dobiti (gubitaka) centralne banke izme?u centralne banke i vlade, kao i pitanja odre?ivanja kapitala centralne banke.

Article Abrstract:

During the 90s, recurrent exchange rate crises in emerging markets have shown the extreme fragility of soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. As a result, numerous academic economists but also International institutions have promoted a new consensus: domestic authorities have to choose their exchange rate regime between only two solutions called corner solutions or extreme regimes: hard pegs or independent floating. This paper questions de relevance of this consensus. We stress the main advantages and costs of each corner solution. We conclude by stressing that intermediate regimes associated to an inflation targeting framework seem a better solution for emerging countries than corner solutions.

Article Abrstract:

Following foreign bank entry, credit interest rates have been extremely high in Serbia compared with a reference group of countries: Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania. This is connected with monetary authorities' poor predictions regarding the behavior of those banks in setting interest rates, creating an illusion that competition, per se, would rapidly result in decreasing interest rates; as well as undertaking monetary policy measures-such as an extreme increase in the reserve requirements rate-that contributed to unchanged or increased credit interest rates. The final outcome of poor predictions and measures undertaken by the National Bank of Serbia is limited to periodical appeals by its highest officials to citizens to consider the conditions under which they borrow from banks. However, under conditions of fully inelastic demand for bank credit and a cartel presence in the banking sector, such appeals are ineffective, merely reflecting an attempt to avoid responsibility for a possible wave of bankruptcies in the household sector. Only increasing competition among banks can lead to a significant decrease in credit interest rates in Serbia in the medium term. Empirical analysis shows that competition should be most intensive on the mortgage loan market.

Article Abrstract:

Local government leaders in the U. S. employ a multitude of programs and policies in the name of economic development to increase the number of firms, employment, wages, and, of course, the tax base. The past few decades have seen a surge in local economic development policies, yet research analyzing their effectiveness is sparse. This study analyzes the relationship between local economic development policy and economic growth in a data set of 412 U. S. cities. Results indicate that policy has only has a weak correlation with economic growth, suggesting that growth is determined more by market conditions rather than government intervention. The article concludes with an entrepreneurial policy approach this author believes may yield development results in an era of limited policy effectiveness.

Article Abrstract:

The main goal of this paper is to test the convergence of social protection expenditures and, more specifically, to examine the incidence of the Maastricht Treaty on this process. We tested several hypotheses of convergence on 12 EU Member States between 1980 and 2000, by considering two indicators: social protection expenditure as percentage of GDP and social protection expenditure per capita. The cross sectional tests of a and ß-convergence show that, for the two indicators, these two assumptions are checked for the whole of the period. On the other hand, the period division in two sub-periods intended to locate the Maastricht effect indicates a rupture since 1993. Then, panel data estimations of conditional ß-convergence confirm the existence of a process of conditional convergence and reveal the significant role of the debt criterion of Maastricht. The coexistence of absolute and conditional ß-convergence is not incompatible. It evokes the possible idea of a European "Social Snake" rather than of a single Social Model.

Article Abrstract:

This paper aims at assessing the fiscal sustainability and its political determinants in seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. First, using the recent sustainability approach of Bohn (1998) based on fiscal reaction function, econometric findings using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) reveal a positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt in several countries. In other words, fiscal policy is sustainable in Baltic countries, Slovenia and Slovakia, but not in Poland and in the Czech Republic. Second, by introducing political dummy variables, we test the electoral budget cycle and the partisan cycle theories. We find the presence of electoral and partisan cycle in Poland but not in the rest of our countries.

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