Article Abrstract:

Razvijen je transakcioni model tražnje za raznovrsnim sredstvima razmene. Neki rezultati su o?ekivani, a drugi su kako novi, tako i iznena?uju?i. Postoje ekstenzivne i intenzivne margine supstitucije valute, a inflacija bi mogla razli?ito uticati na te dve margine, što vodi ka suptilnom podstreku za prihvatanje ili napuštanje supstitutivne valute. Varijabile koje prethodno u literaturi nisu bile uzimane u obzir se na kompleksne i neo?ekivane na?ine odražavaju na supstituciju valute. Posebno su važni nivo dohotka i struktura izdataka za potrošnju, koji se povezuju i sa drugim varijablama u modelu. Nezavisan empirijski rad teoriji pruža podršku.

Article Abrstract:

Tunisia has experienced a performance when pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule. The limitations of this rule are beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, which desire to relax capital controls. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the dinar vis à vis the euro and the $US from 1983 to 2000, using quarterly data, based on the following fundamental variables: terms of trade, net capital inflows and the differential of productivity. Results show that Tunisian dinar was overvalued before the 1986 devaluation, becomes close to its equilibrium value over the 90s'. In the beginning of this century (2000), authorities permit a larger fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate. .

Article Abrstract:

In this paper the HEGY testing procedure (Hylleberg et al. 1990) of analyzing seasonal unit roots is tried to be re-examined by allowing for seasonal mean shifts with exogenous break points. Using some Monte Carlo experiments the distribution of the HEGY and the extended HEGY tests for seasonal unit roots subject to mean shifts and the small sample behavior of the test statistics have been investigated. Based on an empirical analysis upon the conventional money demand relationships in the Turkish economy, our results indicate that seasonal unit roots appear for the GDP deflator, real M2 and the expected inflation variables while seasonal unit roots at annual frequency seem to be disappear for the real M1 balances when the possible structural changes in one or more seasons at 1994 and 2001 crisis years have been taken into account. .

Article Abrstract:

The traditional vision of genocide is exogenous. In this framework, ethnics have a real sense. The economic approach of conflicts has expressed slight differences in the relation between ethnics and conflicts. However it does not reject this explanation. Here we propose an alternative approach, an endogenous vision of genocide. Genocide appears in society where social capital plays a major role in solidarities. But social capital is a weak asset in the individual portfolio. Economic and social shocks may have impacts on the assets structure and may produce conflicts such as genocide. In this new framework, policy makers may have to adopt prudential rules. .

Article Abrstract:

Included in the regional cooperation of SEE countries, trade liberalization is considered the most important factor of a sustainable economic growth which should contribute to the mutual trade among SEE countries, growth of the foreign direct investments, further production specialization and export structure change. Countries of the region have accepted liberalization as one of the conditions of the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP), hoping, each of them individually, that in that way they would improve proper position. Creating a free trade area will contribute to a further increase of intra-regional trade flows, but it shouldn't be expected that the relative importance of mutual exchange will prevail the importance which EU has for the SEE countries, except Moldova. Paper is divided into five sections. After the introduction, the trade liberalization process in the SEE region is explained in the second part (section 2). The third section analyses actual intra-regional trade flows and SEE countries trade relations with the EU (section 3). Some controversial issues raised in recent debates on trade liberalization in SEE are also discussed (section 4). The main conclusions are given at the end (section 5). .

Article Abrstract:

Article Abrstract: