Article Abrstract:

Prva velika finansijska kriza u dvadeset prvom veku uključuje poverljive instrumente, neoprezne nadležne organe i nemirne investitore. Kriza takođe prati dobro poznatu putanju koju su utrli vekovi finansijskih besmislica. Da li je „specijalni” problem subprime hipoteka zaista drugačiji? Naše istraživanje dužih istorijskih iskustava, koje je deo šireg napora u izučavanju valutnih i dužničkih kriza, pokazuje izuzetnu kvalitativnu i kvantitativnu podudarnost između određenih standardnih indikatora finansijske krize. Recimo, snažan rast berzanskih indeksa i cena nekretnina u SAD, za koje su Graciela L. Kaminsky i Carmen M. Reinhart (1999) utvrdili da predstavljaju najbolje pokazatelje izbijanja krize u zemljama sa snažnim prilivima kapitala, blisko prati prosek iz prethodnih osamnaest bankarskih kriza u razvijenim zemljama nakon Drugog svetskog rata. Isti je slučaj sa realnim privrednim rastom u godinama pred izbijanje krize, koji prati putanju obrnutog slova V. Uprkos opštoj zabrinutosti u vezi sa uticajem smanjenja poreza početkom XXI veka na nacionalni dug, akumulacija američkog javnog duga je zapravo ispod proseka prethodnih kriznih epizoda. Nasuprot tome, putanja deficita tekućeg bilansa u SAD je značajno lošija. Sa ove vremenske tačke, još uvek je nepoznato kako će se tekući poremećaji u SAD odvijati. Posledice prethodnih kriza ukazuju da poremećaji mogu biti vrlo ozbiljni, što pre svega zavisi od jačine inijalnog šoka za finansijski sistem (i u određenoj meri, reakcija ekonomske politike). Prosečan pad (realnog per capita) rasta autputa je iznad dva posto, i obično je potrebno dve godine za povratak na dugoročni trend. U pet najgorih epizoda (krize u Finskoj, Japanu, Norveškoj, Španiji i Švedskoj), pad godišnje stope rasta je iznosio preko pet posto u periodu između vrha i dna ciklusa, i rast se zadržava značajno ispod trenda (pre nastanka krize) čak i nakon tri godine. Naravno, donosioci ekonomskih odluka upravo ovakve katastrofalne slučajeve nastoje izbeći.

Article Abrstract:

Summary: In this study, the leading activities of Turkish Economy whose changes in their structure of production, value-added and employment are interrelated with the other activities of the economy, are found by using the input-output model which is presented and called as an ‘Application of the General Equilibrium Theory’ by Leontief. For this purpose; firstly theoretical foundations of the input-output model are examined. After that, 59 activities of the 2002 Input-Output Table of the Turkish Economy are aggregated at 52 sectors and classified into three categories as Ricardo Sectors, High-Technology Sectors and Heckscher-Ohlin Sectors like Dasgupta and Chakraborty did for the Indian Economy in 2005. Then, the leading, key or strong activities of the economy that are more interrelated with other activities are calculated and found by the Static Leontief Model which is used by the Traditional Methods as the techniques to calculate the linkage effects like Chenery-Watanabe and Rasmussen methods to determine the sectors having the highest priority at investment policies according to the Hirschmanian Unbalanced Growth Model. As a result of the interpretation of Leontief Model, using the traditional methods of Chenery-Watanabe and Rasmussen while calculating the linkage effects rather than the hypothesis extraction methods like Strassert’s Original Extraction Method, Cella’s Extraction Method, Sonis’ Pure Linkage Method and Dietzenbacher and Van der Linden’s Method or a SAM (Social Accounting Method) model which does not omit the income generating process (distributing income among primary factors and households as a result of production) of a sector, in Turkey, the Heckscher-Ohlin Sectors mostly seen in the manufacturing industry which Kaldor refers as the engine of growth, are stronger than the other sectors.

Article Abrstract:

The objective of our work is to show the importance of a healthy institutional framework in the finance-growth relation. In this context, we start by presenting, a theoretical lighting on this subject while trying to define the concept of the governorship and to determine its various measurements. Then, we empirically test a model of growth of Solow increased by the human capital, treating relation between financial development, institutions and economic growth. The various estimates were made by Panel data Methods over the period of 1990 to 2006 for 22 developing countries. Following these estimates, it seems that the quality of the institutions is regarded as an important factor which must not be neglected in the study of the relation between the financial sphere and the real sphere.

Article Abrstract:

The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic) and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland) were replaced by the managed floating in the Czech Republic (May 1997), Poland (April 2000), Slovak Republic (October 1998) and fixed exchange rate to euro in Hungary (January 2000) with broad band (October 2001). Higher macroeconomic and banking sector stability allowed countries from the Visegrad group to implement the monetary policy strategy based on the interest rate transmission mechanism. Continuous harmonization of the monetary policy framework (with the monetary policy of the ECB) and the increasing sensitivity of the economy agents to the interest rates changes allowed the central banks from the Visegrad countries to implement monetary policy strategy based on the key interest rates determination. In the paper we analyze the impact of the central banks’ monetary policy in the Visegrad countries on the selected macroeconomic variables in the period 1999-2008 implementing SVAR (structural vector autoregression) approach. We expect that higher sensitivity of domestic variables to interest rates shocks can be interpreted as a convergence of monetary policies in candidate countries towards the ECB’s monetary policy.

Article Abrstract:

The aim of our paper is to identify explanatory variables for income disparities between women and men across different regional types. Using data from the BA Employment Panel (BEP) descriptive statistics show that the gender pay gap grows wider from core regions to periphery. The main explanatory variables for the income differentials are vocational education in the men’s case and size of enterprise in the women’s case. Whereas in the case of women the importance of vocational status increases and the importance of size of enterprise decreases from rural areas to urban areas.

Article Abrstract:

In this paper, Antoine Brunet questions the OECD method in calculating contributions to GDP growth. He tries to show this method induces the users to seriously misjudge the contribution of external trade balance to GDP growth. He shows there is an alternative method, i.e. the AB method which is mathematically as correct as the OECD one. And this method is much more pertinent and allows the users to distinguish between two kinds of countries: on the one hand, the mercantilist countries and on the other hand, the non-mercantilist countries.

Article Abrstract:

In a closed economy, the growth of the GDP is equal to the net indebtedness (the increase of indebtedness) of it agents from one period to another, which allows current demand to be greater than the income of the preceding quarter. In an open economy, we must add to that the net indebtedness of the totality of foreign agents in operation: the currencies corresponding to the foreign trade balance. Depending on the sign of these two kinds of net indebtedness, positive or negative, a classification of countries can be made: mainly mercantilist countries that enjoy a foreign surplus, on the one hand, and “Keynesian” countries running a deficit, whose growth is founded upon domestic demand, on the other hand.

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